Returning for another year, we offer professional comparisons for ESPN`s projected lottery prospects in the upcoming 2025 NBA draft, scheduled for June 25-26.
This exercise is often valuable, provided it`s approached responsibly. However, achieving this can be challenging, as it frequently leads to exaggerated comparisons.
The aim here is not to find a flawless comparison for each of the 14 projected lottery picks – that would be unrealistic. Instead, this process serves as a framework to contemplate a prospect`s potential future role, assess their range of possible outcomes, and pinpoint the development areas most crucial for their long-term success.
This method of thinking can aid in player evaluation from a conceptual standpoint and in visualizing how a prospect`s profile might align with a particular team`s needs.
With the draft just weeks away, let`s explore both high-end and low-end comparisons for each prospect expected to be selected among the first 14 picks, plus an additional player recognized by teams as a potential lottery candidate.
1. Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 1 to Mavericks | Top 100: No. 1
High end: Jayson Tatum with more defense
Low end: Andre Iguodala with more offense
Flagg is the consensus No. 1 pick for compelling reasons: statistically and observationally, he appears on track to become a premier NBA wing. The key question throughout the season, discussed even among NBA executives, has been the ultimate ceiling Flagg might reach. His balanced offensive game and exceptional defense provide an incredible foundation of versatility for an 18-year-old rookie, a trait the Mavericks could leverage next season. Some league observers have likened him to a modern Scottie Pippen, while Flagg himself states he models his game after Tatum, his favorite player.
If Flagg continues to refine his shot creation – an area where he`s shown comfort from the midrange but needs further polish – the possibility of a scoring leap similar to Tatum`s is plausible. He has improved this aspect of his game recently, becoming more confident from long range and offering optimism that he will grow comfortable improvising and operating off the dribble. If he doesn`t develop into a primary scoring option, his best fit might be as a second star alongside a more score-first teammate.
While Flagg is expected to offer more offensively than Iguodala, who never averaged over 20 points per game in his career, that comparison highlights how he could contribute beyond scoring himself. As with most comparisons, the most likely outcome is often somewhere in the middle. In Flagg`s case, the spectrum of possibilities is more exciting than concerning for NBA evaluators.
2. Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers
Mock draft projection: No. 2 to Spurs | Top 100: No. 2
High end: Jalen Brunson but bigger
Low end: D`Angelo Russell
Harper`s combination of size, strength, scoring, and playmaking ability makes him a highly appealing professional prospect, possessing the skills to potentially lead an offense as a high-usage star in a best-case scenario. Although Harper`s size (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) should make him a more impactful defensive player, the Brunson comparison makes sense in a broader context: both utilize craftiness, seeking contact and attacking angles to manipulate defenses. Brunson was a more accomplished 3-point shooter leaving Villanova, a skill Harper must enhance over time to maximize his potential. However, there`s a possibility he reaches that level and becomes a cornerstone player and offensive centerpiece.
Harper`s high floor, partly due to his size advantage handling the ball, is a significant part of his appeal – his mix of strengths suggests he`s unlikely to fail in the NBA. Projecting his lower-end outcomes, he is still likely to be a competent starting-caliber player. He might settle as an average shooter, and his defensive contribution could be inconsistent based on past tendencies. These possibilities would limit his impact on winning as a primary or secondary option, but his game could still adapt effectively to a reduced role.
Russell, the No. 2 pick in 2015 and an All-Star in his fourth season, has been a productive player, yet he hasn`t consistently led a winning team. Harper is expected to contribute early, but his career trajectory thereafter will depend on team context and continuous improvement.
3. Ace Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers
Mock draft projection: No. 3 to 76ers | Top 100: No. 3
High end: Michael Porter Jr.
Low end: Andrew Wiggins
Bailey stands out as the draft`s most explosive shotmaker, a skill highlighting his considerable scoring potential. The main long-term question is how he will effectively utilize this talent, as the rest of his skill set is still developing. He possesses the size to shoot over most defenders, a knack for hitting off-balance shots, and a shooting form that looks promising for catch-and-shoot situations from deep.
However, he isn`t a naturally creative ball handler, often opting to stop dribbling and take a shot rather than maneuvering around defenders, making his approach occasionally predictable, even if difficult to stop entirely.
Banking on Bailey developing the playmaking and handling skills needed for significant on-ball responsibilities is challenging, making Michael Porter Jr. an interesting comparison. As a prospect in 2018, Porter faced similar questions regarding his passing and handling, and he thrived after joining the Denver Nuggets, a team where his shooting was optimized by surrounding playmakers and where he wasn`t required to operate outside his comfort zone as a creator.
It`s easy to foresee Bailey`s efficiency and game improving significantly in such an environment as a second or third scorer. However, envisioning him as a legitimate primary option is harder at this stage. If that development doesn`t occur, his career might resemble Wiggins`, who has been a productive scorer throughout his career but hasn`t always been integral to winning basketball.
4. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Mock draft projection: No. 4 to Hornets | Top 100: No. 4
High end: Victor Oladipo
Low end: Jaden Ivey
The key potential for Edgecombe largely revolves around his development into a capable on-ball creator, where his speed, strength, and elite explosiveness could significantly challenge defenses.
Providing him with the necessary practice to achieve this leap will be the first step, regardless of where he lands. His downhill, highly athletic slashing style aligns him well with a comparison to Oladipo. Oladipo took time to adjust to the NBA, breaking out fully in his fifth season (2017-18) before a knee injury in 2019 impacted his career. There are parallels in their playing styles and trajectories entering the league, including the need to establish a more consistent outside shot and enhance their ability to generate offense while handling the ball.
Edgecombe possesses All-Star potential if everything aligns for him. While his profile carries some risk given the adjustments required to maximize his physical gifts, it`s also clear he has a valuable floor due to his likely contribution as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition player.
The comparison to Ivey is somewhat complex as the Detroit Pistons guard is still progressing himself, but he showed positive signs last season before an injury in January. Slashing guards of this type who need to learn effective decision-making with the ball often require time to find success.
The range of offensive outcomes for Edgecombe could be quite broad, but at minimum, he should still be a highly useful backcourt asset – adding to his appeal as a top-five selection.
5. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Mock draft projection: No. 5 to Jazz | Top 100: No. 7
High end: Monta Ellis
Low end: Jerryd Bayless
Fears` profile features interesting stylistic elements that make finding a comparison tricky. He aggressively drives to the basket and pressures the paint with greater boldness and skill than a typical guard his size, yet he hasn`t been a historically strong 3-point shooter (28.4% on 3s at Oklahoma last season), resulting in a somewhat old-school baseline archetype.
Considering his youth (18) and the progress made with the Sooners, Fears has the potential to become a dangerous scorer and playmaker. However, much depends on his efficiency. Either his perimeter shooting must improve – a reasonable expectation given his solid free throw percentages (85.1% last season) – or his interior scoring needs to translate well enough to support the rest of his game.
Although it refers back a decade or so, Ellis serves as an interesting stylistic comparison: a smaller, high-volume scorer and creator who struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-distance shooting for significant parts of his career. It`s certainly possible Fears could surpass that, but it might be ambitious to expect him to become a top-tier jump shooter immediately, though he should improve with added strength and experience. If that doesn`t happen, he might end up more like Bayless – a combo bench scorer in the long run, representing a potential downside given where a team might need to draft him.
Fears` significant flashes of talent provide room for optimism, but there`s a considerable range of possible outcomes due to the variables that need to align for him to become a star.
6. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Mock draft projection: No. 6 to Wizards | Top 100: No. 5
High end: Michael Redd
Low end: Cam Thomas, but taller
Johnson is a relatively straightforward prospect to evaluate. He`s likely to shoot well; he`s probably going to take many shots; and anything else he provides his future team will be a bonus, not a core expectation.
Johnson`s clean and concise shooting form will make him a threat from beyond the arc, and he`s shown capability to create shots off the dribble, with the fearlessness necessary for a volume scorer, though this can sometimes lead to questionable shot selection. His efficiency near the basket and finishing skills will also require improvement.
If Johnson can approach the type of career Redd had (though Redd`s peak in the early 2000s was ultimately hindered by serious knee injuries in 2009), that would be an excellent outcome, and there are some comparable elements. Redd became one of his era`s top 3-point shooters and handled a heavy scoring load, primarily due to the threat of his unconventional jumper rather than other skills. It`s worth noting Johnson is significantly ahead of Redd at the same age (Redd was a career 31.9% 3-point shooter at Ohio State and a second-round pick). Johnson`s mechanics are much cleaner and project more safely.
It`s a reasonable expectation that Johnson can develop into a dynamic volume shooter – the question is whether he can do so efficiently and within a winning team context. These are similar questions that have surrounded Thomas`s value due to comparable tendencies shown four years into his NBA career.
7. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 7 to Pelicans | Top 100: No. 6
High end: Rudy Gobert, but quicker
Low end: Daniel Gafford, but bigger
Maluach fits neatly into the mold of a rim-protecting, rim-running center, an archetype that has maintained value through the NBA`s evolving styles over the past two decades. He is still learning the game and improving his defensive habits; his sheer size acts as a deterrent in the paint, and his above-average mobility for his 7-2 frame suggests significant defensive potential. An efficient finisher who is otherwise limited offensively, Maluach could potentially become a top-tier player within this specific role.
While Gobert might seem an obvious comparison for tall, paint-protecting centers, in this instance, it illustrates Maluach`s potential to provide substantial defensive anchor capabilities for a successful team. It`s not guaranteed he`ll reach NBA Defensive Player of the Year levels, but there`s assurance in what he already offers, combined with feasible areas for growth, especially if he adds a 3-point shot.
Maluach`s floor as a valuable contributor seems quite secure regardless: centers with his physical dimensions, above-average mobility, and understanding of their role – similar to the comparison with Gafford – tend to find a place in the league.
8. Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 8 to Nets | Top 100: No. 8
High end: Desmond Bane
Low end: Joe Harris
Knueppel can be argued as the draft`s best shooter, but it`s the breadth of his overall offensive game that has elevated him into potential top-five consideration. NBA teams were positively impressed by Knueppel`s decision-making and passing skills at Duke, where he thrived in a significant role requiring him to facilitate offense and space the floor effectively. His average athletic profile – he isn`t exceptionally fast or quick – is the primary concern in his projection, potentially limiting his highest-end outcomes if he cannot generate elite-level offense.
Bane was an undervalued prospect in the 2020 draft out of TCU, where he was a career 43.2% 3-point shooter but was seen as an average athlete with short arms lacking significant potential. He quickly exceeded those expectations, becoming a key player for the Grizzlies in his second season. Memphis invested in his skills and the possibility he could become more than just a 3-and-D player, giving him opportunities to make plays and take on more responsibility. While he won`t surprise anyone the way Bane did, Knueppel`s best-case scenarios fall along these lines.
Considering Knueppel`s age (he turns 20 on Aug. 3, while Bane played four years in college), his career peak in the right situation could potentially surpass Bane`s, contributing to NBA teams` optimism about his future. If he doesn`t fully develop as a shot creator warranting significant ball-handling duties, Knueppel should still be a top-tier shooter contributing valuable minutes to good teams in a more limited capacity, similar to Harris.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF/C, South Carolina
Mock draft projection: No. 9 to Raptors | Top 100: No. 14
High end: Al Horford
Low end: Xavier Tillman
Murray-Boyles projects as a versatile frontcourt player capable of impacting the game across the floor on offense thanks to his smart passing, guarding multiple positions using his length, plus his physicality and toughness. Maximizing his potential hinges on developing his questionable 3-point shot; if he can become a threat from outside, it will help compensate for his less-than-ideal size for a power forward.
If his shot improves, Murray-Boyles could potentially emulate a modern Horford – a versatile big man who can be crucial to winning as a defensive anchor with complementary offensive contributions.
Should Murray-Boyles` development plateau at the NBA level – an unlikely scenario given his age (he turns 20 on June 10) and trajectory – he should still secure a roster spot as a useful depth player akin to Tillman, who shared some of his inherent strengths but was older and considerably less mobile coming out of Michigan State.
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Mock draft projection: No. 10 to Rockets | Top 100: No. 10
High end: Austin Reaves
Low end: Delon Wright
Jakucionis is a smart playmaker for a 6-6 guard, possessing the instincts and skill level to handle the ball and an improving shooting stroke. Relying on timing, pace, and improvisation rather than top-tier speed, he excels in screen situations and plays an unselfish style that should allow him to succeed whether or not he becomes a full-time lead guard. He needs to improve his ball security (3.7 turnovers per game) and 3-point shooting (31.8%), but his demanding role at Illinois required him to take risks, contributing to some of those inefficiencies.
It`s plausible Jakucionis will be valued similarly to Reaves, another crafty combo guard with whom he shares stylistic traits. Reaves entered the NBA at a much older age and quickly established himself as a regular for the Los Angeles Lakers. Jakucionis might take longer, but he is significantly further along than Reaves, who played four college years and went undrafted, was at the same age.
In a worst-case scenario, his well-rounded skill set and ability to play both guard positions should still earn him a long-term spot in the NBA as a reserve.
11. Egor Demin, PG/SG, BYU
Mock draft projection: No. 11 to Trail Blazers | Top 100: No. 11
High end: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey
Low end: Kyle Anderson
It`s easy to see the appeal and raw talent Demin brings as an oversized playmaker, arguably possessing the best passing vision in the class. Such players are consistently sought after, with NBA teams valuing size and feel on the perimeter that can adapt to various roles.
Two primary factors influence Demin`s projection: the amount of time he handles the ball and his shooting consistency from long range. His below-average foot speed and inconsistent 3-point shot present some risk factors. He isn`t quick creating off the dribble and will need to keep defenses honest with his shot to maximize his path to playing time.
While not perfect comparisons, Giddey, historically a below-average shooter who excels when making plays with the ball, and Avdija, who has settled in recently as a versatile off-ball forward, can illustrate different roles Demin might eventually fill. Whether he`s capable of playing as a quasi-lead guard or adds more value as a connector away from the ball remains to be seen, but both pathways are viable depending on his development.
If his development stagnates and he doesn`t reach a significant rotation role, he could still provide long-term depth utility, similar to how Anderson has for much of the past decade.
12. Derik Queen, C, Maryland
Mock draft projection: No. 12 to Bulls | Top 100: No. 11
High end: Alperen Sengun
Low end: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Queen offers significant offensive skills, with face-up ability and passing to operate effectively across the floor and facilitate good offense. The success of players like Sengun, who was drafted later in 2021 and seen as an unconventional prospect, helps establish the potential framework for Queen`s trajectory. He needs to become a more assertive rebounder and an engaged defender – areas that would benefit from improving his physical build and conditioning. He also needs to develop a more dependable 3-point shot.
There is a place for skilled, offense-oriented big men in today`s NBA, but there`s also inherent risk when relying on players with subpar physical and defensive traits. This risk is a factor in how teams project Queen`s future value. If he doesn`t fully capitalize on his abilities and become a cornerstone player, at worst, his talent and basketball IQ will still help him secure a role.
Mamukelashvili, an offensive-minded big man who has settled into a deep bench role in the NBA, represents an extreme lower-end scenario – Queen is considerably more talented – but that comparison serves to underscore the downside if Queen struggles to remain defensively viable on the court. The most probable outcome lies somewhere in the middle.
13. Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)
Mock draft projection: No. 13 to Hawks | Top 100: No. 15
High end: Clint Capela
Low end: Jaxson Hayes
Beringer`s projected NBA role is straightforward and well-established: catching lobs, running the floor, protecting the paint, and potentially switching defensively to some extent. Considering he doesn`t turn 19 until November and has only been playing basketball for three years, NBA teams see attractive potential due to his strong physical attributes and above-average agility for a young center. He is still very early in his development, which introduces some risk but also provides a long period for his next team to nurture him as a potential long-term starting center.
When describing this specific type of center, Capela is a classic point of reference. Although Beringer isn`t likely to space the floor or pose a threat with his jumper, these kinds of bigs can still succeed with surrounding shooting and playmaking, capable of finishing plays and being a threat near the basket without needing specific plays called for them.
Hayes, the No. 8 pick in 2019 based on his remarkable physical tools and similar potential, never became a consistent starter but has maintained a role in the NBA over six seasons – now with the Lakers. Beringer will likely fall somewhere along this spectrum, depending on how quickly he adapts to the NBA game and maximizes his talent.
14. Carter Bryant, SF/PF, Arizona
Mock draft projection: No. 14 to Spurs | Top 100: No. 12
High end: Trey Murphy III
Low end: Royce O`Neale
Bryant`s appealing mix of perimeter size, defensive versatility, passing ability, and a smooth shooting stroke fits into a valuable NBA archetype. He should offer flexibility across multiple positions on both ends, with room for offensive growth. Expecting a significant leap in Bryant`s shot creation is difficult; substantial progress in that area could put him on a path similar to Murphy, another late-blooming 3-and-D type who took time to develop as a scorer.
Admittedly, this comparison might have been better before Murphy`s unexpected scoring surge last season in New Orleans. Reaching that level of output is tough to expect from Bryant, but he has time. If he can become a higher-volume threat from distance, he could add value even if he never reaches the 20-point mark like Murphy recently did.
If Bryant`s development stagnates and he remains primarily a useful bench player, he could still profile as a larger version of O`Neale, who has filled gaps and shot well from both forward spots for much of his career.
Bonus comp!
Noa Essengue wasn`t projected in the lottery in our most recent mock, but he has moved into the top 10 on our Top 100 rankings and thus deserves a mention here.
15. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Mock draft projection: No. 15 to Thunder | Top 100: No. 9
High end: Pascal Siakam
Low end: Jarred Vanderbilt
Essengue has increasingly strengthened his draft case over the past few months in Germany, showing tangible progress in consistency and motor, and playing an active style that positively impacts winning. Still just 18 years old, Essengue possesses a combination of size, mobility, explosiveness, and a frame with potential that offers him various paths to ultimately succeed in the NBA. Forwards of his type who can defend multiple positions, contribute on the boards, and comfortably step out to the perimeter are rare finds.
If Essengue can build on this season, he has the potential to become an excellent NBA player who relies on his energy and physicality while improving his skill level over time, similar to Siakam. Essengue has been valuable without needing designed plays, shows good instincts within the flow of the game, and finds ways to contribute. A significant offensive jump would still be required for him to maximize his potential, particularly as a perimeter shooter, where his consistency remains a challenge.
If an offensive breakthrough doesn`t happen, Essengue should still be a valuable role player, offering rebounding and defensive contributions off the bench in a manner similar to Vanderbilt.