While the 2025-26 NBA Eastern Conference race appears wide open due to numerous star injuries, the Western Conference presents a different scenario. In the West, a group of hopeful contenders must pursue the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder dominated last season, winning the West by a significant 16 games and possessing a sustainable roster built for a potential repeat.
So, which teams are best positioned to challenge Oklahoma City? Which experienced teams hope to remain competitive enough for another deep playoff push? And which young squads are poised for a rapid ascent in the standings?
To provide a broad overview and analyze the initial landscape of the 2025-26 Western Conference, we`ve organized all 15 teams into five distinct tiers. Here is the breakdown for the West, starting with the clear frontrunner that has a strong chance of making history.
Tier 1: The Clear-Cut Favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder
Aside from adding 2024 first-round pick Nikola Topic, the Thunder haven`t acquired any new players through trades or free agency – and arguably, why would they need to? The defending champions already boasted the league`s deepest rotation. They are expected to improve in 2025-26, as only Alex Caruso (31) and Kenrich Williams (30) are older than 27, and Chet Holmgren played only 32 games last season due to injury.
Could they be better than winning the title after a 68-win regular season and achieving the best point differential in NBA history? Yes, it`s not just possible, it`s realistic. As they aim to become the first back-to-back champions since the Durant-era Warriors, which would end a record-long streak without a repeat winner, the Thunder stand in a category of their own.
Tier 2: Ready to Challenge for the Title
Houston Rockets
The Rockets were somewhat of a superficial contender in 2024-25; they secured the No. 2 seed in the West through relentless regular-season effort, but lacked the star power needed to succeed in the postseason, resulting in a first-round exit against the Golden State Warriors. However, after trading for Kevin Durant and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, alongside Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard expected to take on larger roles, the Rockets now have a complete team with the necessary depth and star talent to pose a threat to the Thunder.
While Houston still doesn`t possess as much top-tier talent as the champions, they also lack any significant weaknesses. Don`t be surprised if the Rockets once again claim the No. 2 seed, but appear far more prepared for the playoffs. This contender looks legitimate.
Denver Nuggets
The fundamental structure of the Nuggets remains consistent: Nikola Jokic leads the team, supported by Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. However, Denver has undergone several recent changes: a new coach, a new front office, and a significantly improved bench, following the additions of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and potentially Jonas Valanciunas (if he doesn`t return to Europe). Cameron Johnson replaces Michael Porter Jr. as the starting sharpshooter after his offseason team change.
Were it not for an unexpected offensive outburst from Luguentz Dort, the Nuggets might well have defeated the Thunder in the second round this past spring. They have since reloaded their roster for another opportunity next season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards` continued development will be the primary factor determining whether Minnesota can reach the conference finals for a third consecutive season, and ideally advance to the NBA Finals this time. However, much also depends on the Timberwolves` guard play beyond Edwards. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker moving to Atlanta, the rest of Minnesota`s backcourt rotation includes Mike Conley, who will be 38 before the season starts; the inconsistent Donte DiVincenzo; and rising sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. This duo combined to average just 8.8 points across 81 games in their rookie seasons.
There is potential here, but also considerable risk. The Timberwolves attempted to maintain their position in the offseason by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid, but it`s difficult to argue they genuinely *improved*. Meanwhile, other teams in this tier made undeniable upgrades in their pursuit of catching the Thunder, potentially surpassing Minnesota in the process.
Tier 3: The Old Guard
LA Clippers
The Clippers could arguably be placed in a higher tier. Kawhi Leonard`s first game last season was on January 4th, and from that point onward, the Clippers ranked second in the West with a plus-7.2 net rating. They even outscored Denver over their seven-game first-round series loss, but two close two-point defeats and a lackluster performance in Game 7 doomed their sleeper contender status.
The positive news for the Clippers is the underrated addition of Brook Lopez from Milwaukee, addressing the backup center need behind Ivica Zubac. Furthermore, every key player from the 2024-25 team will return in 2025-26, except for Norman Powell, who was traded for John Collins on Monday. The concerning news is that Leonard, James Harden, along with role players Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, are all in their 30s, raising the question of whether the Clippers missed their prime opportunity last season.
Los Angeles Lakers
Any team featuring Luka Doncic or LeBron James, let alone both, automatically qualifies as a contender. However, do the Lakers possess a sufficiently strong supporting cast to seriously compete? There are significant, difficult questions surrounding the team: Can lineups featuring Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves perform adequately on defense? Will new starting center Deandre Ayton, recently bought out, play with greater intensity and reverse his multiyear decline? Can Jake LaRavia effectively replace Finney-Smith? Is there enough reliable shooting on this roster?
Expect the Lakers` internal drama to persist until they can definitively answer these pressing questions.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have been notably quiet this offseason, seemingly in a holding pattern while awaiting Al Horford`s free agency decision and the resolution of Jonathan Kuminga`s restricted free agency. Currently, they remain in a similar position to how they finished last season: a very good team, especially with Jimmy Butler III integrated, but not a dominant force. Depending on the remainder of the offseason, they could potentially move up a tier – recall that they might have reached the conference finals last season had Stephen Curry not been injured in Game 1 of the second round – but they haven`t made moves yet to warrant a better ranking.
Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg certainly doesn`t fit the “old guard” description, and the 18-year-old No. 1 overall pick is the primary source of excitement for the Mavericks. However, a team anchored by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (upon his return from a torn ACL), with Klay Thompson and D`Angelo Russell starting in the backcourt, still qualifies for the old guard designation.
The larger question for the Mavericks revolves around whether they have sufficient playmaking: can Flagg handle point forward duties as a rookie, will the streaky Russell have consistent hot stretches, and most importantly, will Irving return at full capacity or require another season to regain form?
Tier 4: Young and Hungry
Memphis Grizzlies
The trade of Desmond Bane appears to have been a specific adjustment rather than the beginning of a complete rebuild. Memphis followed that surprising move by signing Ty Jerome, trading up to draft Cedric Coward (a potential Bane replacement), and extending both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. The roster still possesses considerable depth and talent.
However, without Bane, the concentration of top talent is now primarily at point guard and center. To avoid a decline, the Grizzlies need either Coward to perform well as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to make significant progress in his second year, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to rebound after a subpar season in Orlando.
San Antonio Spurs
De`Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the court for only five games last season, in the brief period between Fox`s trade to San Antonio and Wembanyama`s diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis, which prematurely ended his outstanding second season. Adding No. 2 pick Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, it`s evident the Spurs have significant self-discovery ahead as they figure out how their new core fits together.
Consequently, this season is likely to be a transitional one for San Antonio as they begin to establish their identity. After securing the No. 2 pick, the Spurs notably refrained from pursuing immediate “win-now” moves like a trade for Durant. However, they also possess high potential for rapid improvement in 2025-26, largely thanks to Wemby, who is favored to win Defensive Player of the Year and earn All-NBA honors.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season, the Trail Blazers had a 13-28 record in the first half but improved to 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as valuable two-way players. This summer, by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role (a move that included buying out Ayton), Portland reinforced its defensive identity.
It remains uncertain whether the Simons-less Blazers have enough offensive capability to reach the play-in tournament, and they will rely on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to show further growth in the backcourt. However, for the team with the second-longest playoff drought in the West – only the Spurs` is longer – the outlook in Portland appears promising.
Tier 5: What`s the Plan?
Sacramento Kings
In 1,121 possessions last season with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine on the court together, the Kings posted an offensive rating of 117.4, according to Cleaning the Glass. This is a respectable figure, ranking in the 72nd percentile league-wide for such lineups. However, in the same possessions, the Kings had a defensive rating of 120.9, placing them in the 11th percentile. The Kings have notable players and often provide entertainment – but they lack a realistic path to consistently winning games. Perhaps they could contend for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are not strong enough to do so in the West.
Phoenix Suns
“What`s the plan?” has been a valid question regarding Phoenix for some time, and this offseason has provided little clarity. The Suns did not receive a strong return for trading Durant, while simultaneously adding two centers on draft night and still lacking natural point guards or power forwards in their projected rotation. Devin Booker and Jalen Green could prove to be a very awkward fit as a starting backcourt.
Expect the Suns, led by owner Mat Ishbia, to continue prioritizing current competitiveness over future assets. But don`t anticipate many actual wins.
New Orleans Pelicans
One might suspect the Pelicans would rank themselves higher, given the aggressive approach to their offseason moves, most notably trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots in the 2025 draft. There are some reasons for optimism – primarily, if the Pelicans can achieve better health after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Herbert Jones collectively missed significant time last season.
However, with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram gone, and Dejounte Murray sidelined with a torn Achilles, there is significant uncertainty in New Orleans, with no clear long-term strategy for building a winning roster. Even in the short term, the Pelicans weren`t dominant even in their rare moments of full health last season, finishing 10-20 when Williamson played, and posting a minus-4.3 net rating when Williamson and Murphy shared the floor.
Utah Jazz
On one hand, Lauri Markkanen remains in Utah. The team expressed interest in adding Jusuf Nurkic. And new president of basketball operations Austin Ainge stated in his introductory press conference, when asked about tanking, “You won`t see that this year.”
Yet, on the other hand, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton this summer for minimal returns; drafted an 18-year-old project in Ace Bailey; and is projected to feature the league`s youngest starting backcourt. The Jazz could genuinely try not to tank and still lose over 60 games this season, given their roster`s deficiencies and the overall strength across the rest of the Western Conference.