Anticipate a busy 2025 NBA offseason if it mirrors the trade deadline activity witnessed this past season. In a single week leading up to February 6th, several All-Stars, including Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler III, Zach LaVine, and De`Aaron Fox, were involved in trades. Now, attention shifts to key figures like Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant, and several other prominent players facing uncertain situations.
The Bucks and Suns are among the ten teams we`ll be monitoring closely this summer. This list also includes the 2024 champions, the Boston Celtics. These teams possess the potential to significantly alter the league landscape during the offseason period.
Boston Celtics
`The CBA has been well known for years. So there are penalties associated with being at certain levels, and we know that. You just weigh that. You weigh where we are. You weigh everything else, then you make those decisions.`
— Brad Stevens, May 2025
Brad Stevens, the Celtics` President of Basketball Operations, is fully aware of the team`s estimated $500 million payroll and the roster limitations imposed by exceeding the salary cap`s second apron. However, unlike the previous season where an NBA championship justified the high costs, Boston`s roster is under scrutiny after a second-round playoff exit, compounded by superstar Jayson Tatum`s torn Achilles injury during the run.
The Celtics are approximately $23 million over the second apron. Unless the Brooklyn Nets are willing to absorb the expiring $30.7 million contract of center Kristaps Porzingis, there`s no straightforward single trade that brings them under the threshold. Reducing salary will likely necessitate multiple transactions.
Given that Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are under contract through at least the 2028-29 season, Boston faces the challenge of balancing cost reduction with their ongoing championship aspirations.
If Boston remains above the second apron, their roster restrictions include:
- Inability to combine multiple contracts in a trade.
- Restricted to using no more than 100% of the traded player exception.
- Prohibited from sending out cash in trades.
- Unable to utilize a previously existing trade exception.
- Cannot sign a waived player whose previous salary was $14.1 million or higher.
If the Celtics finish the 2025-26 season over the second apron, their 2033 first-round draft pick will become “frozen,” similar to their 2032 pick.
Brooklyn Nets
`If you`re going after max-level talent, they have to automatically and absolutely change the trajectory of your team. This can`t be like let`s go get this [guy] and lock ourselves into being a 6-7 seed. When we go all-in, you`re going in to compete at the highest level and contend.`
— Sean Marks, April 2025
The Nets possess unique advantages this offseason: four first-round picks in June and over $40 million in cap space. However, unlike the 2019 offseason when they signed Durant and Kyrie Irving, the current roster isn`t immediately championship-ready, even with the addition of an All-NBA caliber player.
Consequently, Brooklyn is a prime candidate to pursue free agents with potentially inflated contracts (similar to Indiana`s signing of Bruce Brown in 2023), absorb salary in exchange for draft capital, or target restricted free agents using offer sheets.
NBA rules prevent Brooklyn from utilizing most of its available cap space during the regular season. Teams are mandated to spend 90% of the salary cap by the season`s opening day. Including their four first-round picks, Brooklyn has $79 million in existing salary commitments and will need to spend an additional $60 million to reach the required threshold.
Denver Nuggets
`We definitely need to figure out a way to get more depth. It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, the longer benches, are the ones who are winning. Indiana, OKC, Minnesota.`
— Nikola Jokic, May 2025
Comments from the three-time MVP didn`t surprise Nuggets President Josh Kroenke. “I heard Jokic`s comments loud and clear. I mean, I think that I was thinking that before those words came out of his mouth,” Kroenke stated last month.
With Jokic under contract for three more years, there`s a clear sense of urgency to improve the roster, particularly the bench. The Nuggets` starters averaged 94.4 points during the regular season, reportedly the highest mark by any team since the 1986-87 season.
Denver has three potential avenues to enhance its depth:
- Develop existing draft picks like Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and DaRon Holmes into reliable rotation players.
- Explore trades. Since Denver has only one first-round pick available for trade in either 2031 or 2032, their primary trade asset is Michael Porter Jr. Porter averaged a career-best 18.2 points this season and is owed $38.3 million and $40.8 million over the next two seasons, respectively. Denver also has the combined $13.5 million salary of Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric. As Denver is projected to be a first apron team, they are restricted from taking back higher salaries in trades than they send out.
- Utilize free agency. This path appears challenging as the Nuggets have significant salary tied up in Jokic, Jamal Murray, Porter, and Aaron Gordon, accounting for 82% of their total payroll. Furthermore, the first year of Murray`s contract extension pushes Denver back over the first apron. Unless a trade occurs to clear significant salary, Denver`s options in free agency may be limited to only the veteran minimum exception.
Golden State Warriors
`We`re good at giving up whatever it takes. It just depends on how good we think that will make our team. I think the only issue with mortgaging the future is you just don`t want to get caught. I don`t want to get caught in a situation where we give up a ton, put all our chips in, and then 10 games into the season, we have a catastrophic injury, there`s nowhere to go and then we`re stuck for four or five years.`
— Mike Dunleavy Jr., May 2025
Golden State General Manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. possesses the draft assets to potentially make a significant “all-in” move. Starting on draft night, the Warriors can trade up to four first-round picks: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if outside the top 20), and 2032. They also hold the right to swap first-round picks in future seasons if their 2030 pick is within the top 20.
However, the main challenge will be assembling a salary package large enough for a meaningful trade without including key players like Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler III. Stephen Curry, Butler, and Green account for 85% of Golden State`s payroll. The remaining six players under guaranteed contracts are set to earn a combined $30 million next season. These salary constraints highlight the crucial role Jonathan Kuminga plays in the Warriors` offseason strategy.
The Warriors are expected to extend a $7.9 million qualifying offer to Kuminga, making him a restricted free agent. With Brooklyn potentially being the only team capable of offering a starting salary of $20 million or more (which Golden State could match), exploring a sign-and-trade scenario for Kuminga might be the best option.
There are two hurdles in a sign-and-trade for Kuminga, aside from the requirement that he signs a contract of at least three guaranteed years. Firstly, only 50% of Kuminga`s outgoing salary counts for trade purposes, not the full amount. (For example, if his first-year salary is $30 million, only $15 million is counted as outgoing for Golden State, while the acquiring team takes on the full $30 million.) Secondly, Golden State is projected to be $25 million below the first apron. This means they cannot acquire a player earning more than that amount unless additional salary is included in the trade package.
Houston Rockets
`I think continuity for continuity`s sake isn`t what we`re trying to achieve. Continuity is great, but the goal ultimately is to build a championship team. And if we think that there`s a move or a series of moves that make it more likely we will be that then, then we would ignore continuity, and we do those moves.`
— Rafael Stone (via Houston Chronicle)
If the Rockets` General Manager Rafael Stone is prepared to sacrifice continuity to acquire an All-NBA level player, expect Houston to be aggressive this offseason. Houston fulfills the three critical criteria necessary to acquire a superstar:
- Draft Equity: Houston holds five tradeable first-round picks over the next seven years, including the 10th pick in this year`s draft and unprotected firsts in 2027 (Phoenix) and 2029 (Phoenix or Dallas). They can also trade their own first-round picks in 2028, 2030, and 2032.
- Controllable Contracts: The Rockets have five players – Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson – on cost-controlled rookie-scale contracts.
- Sizable Contracts: Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green signed rookie extensions last October. The “poison pill” provision in their contracts is lifted on July 1st, making them eligible for trade. Both players are due to earn $33 million next season. Dillon Brooks has two years remaining on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).
Houston also has until June 29th to decide on Fred VanVleet`s $44.9 million team option. The decision on VanVleet will significantly impact the team`s financial flexibility in potential trades and their ability to retain free agent Steven Adams.
The Rockets performed optimally in their first-round series against Golden State when Adams was paired with Sengun. This postseason, when both players were on the court, Houston registered a net rating of plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions, slightly better than their regular-season mark of plus-30.
Houston is currently positioned right at the first apron threshold, factoring in the team options for VanVleet and Aaron Holiday, as well as the non-guaranteed contract of Jock Landale.
Los Angeles Lakers
`I think when you make a huge trade at the deadline where you trade your starting center for a point guard, of course, that`s going to create significant issues with the roster, and we saw some of those play out. We know this offseason, one of our primary goals is going to be to add size in our frontcourt at the center position.`
— Rob Pelinka, May 2025
Lakers GM Rob Pelinka attempted to address a roster gap at the trade deadline by trying to acquire Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams. The aim was to provide Luka Doncic with a lob threat and fill the void left by the trade involving Anthony Davis. However, the trade was ultimately rescinded due to a failed physical examination.
While the Lakers lack the cap space to sign a top free agent like Myles Turner, they do possess assets for trades. These include a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, the right to swap firsts in five future years, their 2024 first-round pick Dalton Knecht, and over $70 million in expiring contracts (including Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Gabe Vincent) that could be used in a package.
The Lakers will continue to balance their immediate “win-now” objectives, driven by LeBron James` presence, with the long-term goal of building a sustainable roster centered around Luka Doncic. Doncic is eligible to sign a four-year extension worth $229 million starting August 2nd.
Milwaukee Bucks
`Me not having a second championship — I look back at my career and everybody can say, `Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever. But me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I`m letting down myself.`
— Giannis Antetokounmpo, April 2025 (via Thanalysis podcast)
The Milwaukee Bucks are poised to be a central focus of the NBA universe this offseason for two main reasons. ESPN`s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that Giannis Antetokounmpo is exploring whether his long-term future is best served remaining with the Bucks or elsewhere.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next three seasons, with a player option for the 2027-28 season. The 30-year-old two-time MVP will become eligible to sign a four-year extension valued at $293.4 million during the 2026 offseason, which could be with the Bucks or a new team.
As is customary in any offseason, the clock is ticking for Milwaukee to build a championship-contending roster around their superstar. Improving a top-heavy roster could prove challenging this summer. Milwaukee cannot trade multiple first-round picks and is currently limited to trading only its 2031 or 2032 pick. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma represent a combined $130 million out of the Bucks` projected $164 million payroll next season.
Lillard, who turns 35 in July, is owed $113 million over the next two seasons while recovering from a torn Achilles. Several players, including Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., and Gary Trent Jr., could become free agents this summer (Portis and Porter have player options). Despite the challenges, there are positives. Milwaukee is no longer in financial constraints and can add talent via free agency or trade. Furthermore, they compete in a relatively wide-open Eastern Conference with no single overwhelming favorite for next season.
Orlando Magic
`We`re ready to kind of turn the page on our rebuild and enter the next stage of our team and look at it through a more win-now lens.`
— Jeff Weltman, April 2025
While we hesitate to label Jeff Weltman, Orlando`s Head of Basketball Operations, as conservative, he has attempted to delicately balance drafting, developing, retaining talent, and competing for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference in recent years. Since 2021, Orlando has primarily built its roster through the draft, featuring a league-high nine drafted players and only two acquired via trade (Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris). This approach has yielded some success, with the Magic reaching the first round of the playoffs in consecutive seasons. However, they have failed to advance past the first round both times. With the initial years of Franz Wagner`s and Jalen Suggs` extensions set to begin, the Magic are projected to exceed the luxury tax and cross the first apron.
How the Magic progress will depend on Weltman`s ability to make adjustments, particularly considering the team`s health, and whether Orlando can truly contend for a top-four seed in the East. During the regular season, all four of the team`s leading scorers—Paolo Banchero, Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moritz Wagner—missed at least 20 games each. The core trio of Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner played together in only six games, accounting for just 3% of Orlando`s total possessions.
The Magic possess the necessary draft assets and contracts to be aggressive this offseason if external help is deemed necessary. Orlando became the first team since the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder to rank last in 3-point shooting percentage and still qualify for the postseason. They not only hold two first-round picks in this year`s draft but also have the ability to trade up to four firsts over the next seven years and the right to swap first-round picks each season.
Phoenix Suns
`I want my career to end on my terms, that`s the only thing. That`s the only thing I`m worried about. `Cause I see a lot of dudes that don`t get that opportunity, so I want to keep putting in that work to make that choice on my own.`
— Kevin Durant, via `The Draymond Green Show with Baron Davis`
If Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks as 1A on teams` wish lists this offseason, Kevin Durant is undoubtedly a close 1B. The 37-year-old averaged 26.6 points last season, the sixth highest in the NBA, and has only averaged below 25 points once in his career, during his rookie season.
Following two seasons that were both expensive and underachieving, the Suns are likely to contemplate resetting their roster, potentially starting with exploring trade options for their All-Star forward. Durant is entering the final year of his contract, and without an extension or trade, the Suns face the risk of losing him for no compensation next offseason.
Three factors could significantly influence the trade package Phoenix might receive for Durant:
- Can Phoenix drop below the second apron to aggregate contracts in a trade? Or below the first apron to use more than 100% of the traded player exception? The Suns are projected to be $25 million over the second apron, but they could shed significant salary if Cody Martin ($8.7 million) is waived, Vasilije Micic`s $8.1 million team option is declined, and Bradley Beal is bought out of his contract. The same apron rules will apply to any team interested in acquiring Durant`s $54.6 million salary.
- Is Durant willing to sign a two-year extension worth $112 million with a potential new team?
- Is the team trading for Durant still positioned to contend for a championship immediately?
San Antonio Spurs
`It just shows that they`re not here to waste time and they`re willing to take the next step on time. We`re moving forward. I think it`s a good step in the building of our future.`
— Victor Wembanyama, February 2025
Similar to Houston, San Antonio meets the criteria – possessing draft assets, promising young players, sizable contracts, and a desire to build a winning roster – required to potentially add a third star alongside Victor Wembanyama and De`Aaron Fox.
Not only do the Spurs hold two picks in the lottery, including the No. 2 selection, but they also have the right to swap first-round picks with the Atlanta Hawks in 2026, the Hawks` unprotected first-round pick in 2027, and multiple other pick swaps. The Spurs are also permitted to trade two of their own future first-round picks (either 2029 and 2031 or 2030 and 2032). Additionally, San Antonio has 17 second-round picks available for trade.
They benefit from significant financial flexibility, allowing them to more easily aggregate contracts sent out and take back higher salaries in trades. Entering the offseason, San Antonio is positioned comfortably below both the first and second aprons, approximately $32 million and $44 million below, respectively. Excluding Fox and Wembanyama, the Spurs have ten players earning salaries between $3 million and $27 million, providing valuable contracts for trade purposes.